Why Aren't Ice Creams Selling Well This Year?

The store owner said that in previous years, popsicles and ice cream would have entered their peak sales season by July. He would place shopping bags in front of the freezer for customers' convenience in buying in bulk. He didn't expect that Hangzhou's temperature wouldn't heat up as quickly as last year. Just as there were signs of high temperatures a couple of days ago, they were extinguished by heavy rain. The sales of popsicles and ice cream have remained sluggish: "It's down about 15% compared to the same period last year, mainly for products over 10 yuan. Magnum, Baxi, and Zhenxi just aren't moving."

@Ningyi:Before saying they aren't selling, let's look at the prices first. According to the store owner, the ones that aren't selling are mainly products over 10 yuan.

At this point, I'm also puzzled. Who gave ice cream shop owners the courage to think that 10-yuan ice creams should be bestsellers?

When it comes to consumption, we have to mention wages. Judging from the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, per capita disposable income has been growing steadily every year.

In 2025, the national per capita disposable income was 43,377 yuan, a nominal increase of 5.0% over the previous year, and a real increase of 5.0% after deducting price factors. It must be specially noted that this disposable income is not the wages people generally understand, but the sum of multiple incomes including wages.

Specifically, in 2025, the national per capita wage income was 24,555 yuan, an increase of 5.3%, accounting for 56.6% of per capita disposable income; per capita net business income was 7,252 yuan, an increase of 5.0%, accounting for 16.7%; per capita net property income was 3,490 yuan, an increase of 1.6%, accounting for 8.0%; and per capita net transfer income was 8,080 yuan, an increase of 5.7%, accounting for 18.6%.

If we only look at wage income, then the per capita monthly wage (disposable) might be just over 2,000 yuan. Of course, with this kind of income, forget about mortgages and car loans.

If you include the mortgage, a take-home monthly wage of 4,000 yuan, minus the loan repayment, might only leave one or two thousand. After deducting essential living expenses, there's probably no spare cash left for a 10-yuan ice cream bar.

This discussion only covers people with stable incomes and fixed jobs. For those in "flexible" employment, their income levels are hard to say. Although delivering food or driving for ride-hailing apps can bring in over 4,000 yuan a month, or even 7,000 to 10,000 yuan, future uncertainty makes them afraid to spend.

Although relevant departments track the unemployment rate, no one can give an accurate number of how many people are in flexible employment—estimates range from 280 million to 320 million.

But there is no dispute on one point: the number of people in flexible employment is increasing, having shifted from a "supplementary form" in the job market to an "important pillar."

This is what's called the "new employment form."

As mentioned earlier, wages rise every year. Theoretically, past wages were lower, so why did people dare to spend in the past but not now?

The reason is simple: in the past, housing prices were rising, assets in hand were appreciating, and people had confidence in the future, so they dared to spend. They'd even dare to buy a 68-yuan ice cream bar!

But now, people have generally become conservative.

What's the reason for this conservatism?

The number of people in flexible employment has increased.

Furthermore, price hikes are also a reason for the sluggish ice cream sales.

I've bought ice cream a few times this year too. Looking at the prices, the mini pudding pops that used to be 0.5 yuan each have now gone up to 0.8 yuan—that's the cheapest. The ones that used to be over 2 yuan have now risen to over 3 yuan, approaching 4 yuan.

When they were cheap, you might convince yourself to satisfy a craving. But after the price increase, you immediately start thinking about health issues. After all, ice cream is high in calories, and eating too much makes you gain weight. Many ice cream bars have nearly 300 calories each—a proper calorie bomb. Downing one means a 40-minute run was for nothing. Of course, milk tea drawing away customers and the "un-summer-like" weather are also factors. It's already early July, and continuous rainy weather has kept temperatures in many southern cities from breaking 30 degrees.

But the main reason is probably still income. If people had money, who wouldn't know how to spend it? Who wouldn't know to buy the good stuff?