Expecting Domestic Industries to Absorb the Overproduction of College Graduates is Almost Impossible; Going Overseas is the Only Option

@马岩Marks：In an era of unlimited supply, college graduates have become overproduced—just like China's industrial capacity. Expecting domestic industries across the board to absorb this overproduction of graduates is almost impossible. Many people lament the employment issues facing our college graduates, but to put it more bluntly: even if the whole world worked together to create jobs, it still might not be enough.

Industrial capacity goes overseas first, followed by college graduates. This is not a multiple-choice question, but a fill-in-the-blank one. The two blanks to fill in are: time, and country.

In a previous interview with Tiege, we discussed Africa's "climate curse"—in tropical regions, because the climate and resources are so favorable, the growing conditions for both flora and fauna are excellent. People living there have food right outside their doors: fruit on the trees, grain in the fields, fish and shrimp in the water. They can fill their stomachs anytime, anywhere, so they have absolutely no need to engage in hyper-competition ("involution"). Why compete? I won't starve anyway; being happy is enough.

I mentioned that twenty years ago, domestic media frequently discussed the "resource curse" in several northern provinces. For instance, certain major coal-producing provinces, because they had no shortage of resources to trade for money, were locked in place by those resources in the long run. They also lacked the motivation to hyper-compete on productivity. Lying on their resources and selling them was enough; why compete? Not only will I not starve, but I'll eat well, with no shortage of meat, eggs, and milk. I'll even continuously export coal bosses to Beijing to buy properties—buying entire buildings at a time. Not just buildings, but also exporting coal bosses to invest in making movies.

At that moment, a term suddenly flashed in my mind: the industrial curse.

This is the cursing effect brought about by powerful industrial capacity itself. Industrial capacity and industrial products fill every corner of our lives at extremely low costs and prices. All resources for survival and daily life are readily accessible. Lying at home, you can enjoy the beautiful life created by an affordable industrial society. Why compete? Not only will I not starve, but I'll have my fill of meat, eggs, and dairy. I can mindlessly scroll through Douyin and Kuaishou, watching young men and women dance for me, whoever I want to see. Why should I compete? Why must I strive? Can striving guarantee I'll get rich?

There is no reason, no motivation, and no way to persuade them. This might be the next generation emerging before our eyes.

I utterly detest the trend in public opinion that blames all problems on the government, looking for causes within the government whenever a problem arises. This is profoundly un-libertarian. This is the good and the bad brought about by the development of productivity itself. Neither the government nor the providers of productivity necessarily want to see this scenario, but it is an unavoidable step.

Of course, there will still be people who continue to strive for the survival of three meals a day. However, there will also be an increasing number of young people resembling the Japanese youth of the past thirty years. Three meals a day at 7-Eleven are so affordable, and public or shared housing isn't that expensive. As long as they insist on not marrying and not having children, aside from food, phone bills, rent, and utilities, all other consumption is non-essential.

This is an appendage of Japan's once highly developed industry. Advanced industrial capacity cursed this former East Asian powerhouse, and it will inevitably be a part of the reality we face in the future.

Over the past thirty years, in highly industrialized Japan, there were roughly two groups of young people. One group stayed in the country, enjoying rising social welfare. They could live off their parents, rely on welfare, or earn living expenses through discounted part-time jobs, enjoying all the conveniences and becoming the so-called "Heisei slackers." At the same time, another group chose to go overseas—to China, Southeast Asia, Europe, and North America. They entered new markets and grew alongside them. They acquired brand-new career and development opportunities, and even carved out different life paths. Such opportunities were close to the vibrant vitality and surging opportunities their parents' generation experienced in a rapidly developing Japan.

For us, after the overproduction of college graduates, setting aside those young people who can enter high-tech or creative industries, the remaining young people are becoming more and more crowded. They will either be pushed to the sidelines or jump out directly. Ultimately, they face two paths: stay in the country and enjoy the ever-improving material life and pleasing short videos, feeding themselves without worrying about a family, treating marriage and child-rearing as irrelevant, and seeking self-salvation in the online metaverse; or go overseas to Asia, Africa, and Latin America to find surging opportunities, realizing their life ideals and ambitions—some might even have seven or eight mixed-race children along the way, each speaking fluent Mandarin.