AI is Reshaping the Data Structure of the Entire US Economy

@Yuanshenlu Trader: This WSJ article presents a very interesting perspective: AI is no longer simply a "tech industry boom," but is reshaping the data structure of the entire US economy, even causing many traditional macroeconomic indicators to become "distorted."

The core logic of the article is that the US currently has "two economies":

One is the AI economy, where capital expenditure, profits, stock prices, and data center construction are experiencing comprehensive explosions; the other is the non-AI economy, where growth in consumption, real estate, traditional manufacturing, and transportation equipment is actually very weak.

In the first quarter of this year, US real GDP grew by 2%, which seems decent, but breaking it down:

Tech equipment investment soared by 43%
Software investment grew by 23%
Data center construction grew by 22%
But household consumption only grew by 1.6%
Investment in real estate, factories, and transportation equipment actually declined

The author even estimates that the AI-related economic growth rate is as high as 31%, while the non-AI economy is only 0.1%.

More importantly, the driving effect of AI on the US economy itself carries a strong attribute of "inflatedness."

Because a large amount of AI capital expenditure is essentially importing advanced semiconductors, servers, optical modules, and other hardware. Although it is counted as investment in US GDP statistics, much of the money ultimately flows to the Asian supply chain. As a result, the US trade deficit is growing larger, and the exports and stock markets of Taiwan, China, and South Korea have been directly lifted by AI.

The article also mentions a crucial phenomenon: AI is pushing the divergence between capital and labor to the extreme.

The explosion of US stock earnings is mainly concentrated in the Mag7 and semiconductor companies:

Mag7 profits grew by 61%
The remaining 493 companies' profits only grew by 16%

Meanwhile, US labor income growth is only 3.1%, which is negative growth after deducting inflation, and labor income's share of GDP has dropped to its lowest since 1947.

Therefore, the US market is now experiencing a very polarized state:

The stock market and corporate sentiment are very optimistic
Ordinary workers are increasingly anxious

Because AI is promoted every day as "replacing humans," and many companies like to attribute their layoffs to improvements in AI efficiency. Even though actual employment data hasn't truly collapsed, market sentiment has been altered first.

The most interesting part of this article is actually the counterintuitive conclusion at the end:

If the AI capital expenditure bubble truly ends, the US economy might not collapse as many people imagine.

Because the current AI boom is more concentrated among a few tech giants, a few data center regions, and at the capital market level. After AI investment cools down, the ones who will be hurt the most are likely the stock market and tech capital, rather than ordinary employment and the real economy.

In a sense, the US economy is increasingly resembling:
A localized prosperity covered by an "AI super capital cycle," rather than a comprehensive economic expansion in the traditional sense.